Israelis, Palestinians, and Gaza at a Crossroads: What Comes Next?

Peter Krause, MIT PhD ’11, is an Associate Professor of political science at Boston College and a Research Affiliate with the MIT Security Studies Program. He is an expert on Middle East politics.

He is accepting questions ahead of the session here.

The Israel-Hamas conflict, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East all stand at a crossroads. In the coming days and weeks, we may see a ceasefire and a release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, or we may see an Israeli invasion of Rafah. Outside of Gaza, Iran and Israel may decide to continue to escalate their conflict directly or return to a war by proxy after their first direct airstrike exchange. Leaders in the U.S., Europe, and the Gulf will watch these developments closely to see whether the Israeli government will heed their warnings against a Rafah operation and accept their offer of a stronger anti-Iranian alliance and Saudi normalization in exchange for a path to a two-state solution. This session will present the implications and likelihood of each of these scenarios, and detail the connections between these local, regional, and international developments.
 
The have a major bearing on Israel’s relationship with the U.S. and Europe—whose leaders have warned against a Rafah—as well as discussions of normalization.  
 
-Will Israel go into Rafah, and if so what does that do to Israel’s relationship with the U.S. and others? What does it mean for the humanitarian situation with the Palestinians?
-Will there be another hostage/ceasefire deal, and is time running out on the possibility?
-Will Israel and Iran continue to escalate their conflict more directly, or were their first direct attacks in history enough to get one or both sides to return to their shadow war?
-Will looming ICC (charging Israeli leaders as war criminals) and ICJ cases have a significant impact on Israeli decision-making and international status?
-Will the Israelis opt for normalization with Saudi Arabia and the path to a two-state solution, and would Hamas and the PA go along with it?

THIS SESSION WILL NOT BE RECORDED.

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